With self-driving cars coming, do you think most families will go from having more than one car to having one self driving car in the future?
Ownership of personal vehicles will go down over time but not to zero. Peak availability and other considerations (like long distance travel) will continue the history of direct consumer ownership of a fully automated Self Drive Vehicle (“faSDV”).
If the household is ‘traditional’ and suburban, long commutes of the primary breadwinner might still have the family need 2 vehicles. If the commute is short, the faSDV can return ‘home’ and act as the second vehicle. Likely to be very common. And even more likely that 3 and 4 car families will drop to 1 or 2.
Ride sharing will help push to the single vehicle model, especially in the denser suburban areas or city environments. And in these areas, maybe to the zero model for less frequent drivers who will find faSDV taxis a lower cost option vs ownership.
So the average might approach one vehicle. Fewer 3,4 car families. Many fewer 2 car families. And a lot of urban/suburban singles/families going to zero. If most is 51%, then yes, most families will go from having more than one car to having one self driving car in the future.
However, if faSDVs become generally available starting in 2020, it might be 10 to 15 years before this happens.
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