Self Driving Cars: One Man's Opinion

Quicker than we think. But still likely a couple of years. Maybe early 2019. The great thing is that this is not (for now anyway) a federal issue. States (and other countries) can decide for themselves that a fully automated Self Drive Vehicle (“faSDV”) can take the street without a driver. In Georgia a ‘golf cart’ can drive on any 35 mph (or less) road. Some states will be willing to open the door to faSDVs sooner rather than later. Does PA want to keep their Pittsburgh based / Carnegie Mellon based faSDV technology business? Well they better be early with approvals or maybe GA will find an enticement to get them to move (no humans required to control the faSDV). Perhaps the same for Google and Apple in CA. Ford and GM are going to be restricted in MI? I don’t think so. Initial faSDV approvals are likely to be areas smaller than an entire state. A city center, a college town, or a resort island are examples of geofenced areas that might pretty quickly get a state to approve. ...

Fully automated Self Drive Vehicles (“faSDVs”) are one of just a few known things that will visibly change the look and feel of this century in simple and profound ways (when they become dominant around mid century or earlier). My comments are directed at USA life but apply to most first and second world countries. Today we tolerate 30,000+ deaths, hundreds of thousands of injuries and tens of billions in property damage each year in the USA because the value of individual transport is so high. faSDVs let us keep the value while eliminating 80% to 98% of the costs in death, injury, and damage. Tens of millions spend hundreds of hours per year commuting. At best unproductive, often stressful. The faSDV turns this time into productive work time or leisure time. This time reallocation has huge societal and personal value. Ditto for those that travel during the work day (like repair and service people). The faSDV technology will eliminate millions of jobs in trucking, taxi dri...

Yes. Completely. And faster than anyone expects. Self Driving Vehicles ("SDVs") will be among the most disruptive technologies introduced in the last 100 years. It will happen because: [1] The economics are beyond compelling. [2] There are specific businesses & population groups that will immediately benefit and will drive the broader than usual early adoption curve. [3] There are significant non economic benefits that will appeal to an array of specific constituencies that will help drive adoption. [4] Economic opportunities for new entrants will overwhelm defenders of the 'status quo'. [1] The economics are beyond compelling. We have seen this story before. It is the story of the mechanization of the farm displacing 90%+ of traditional farm labor. It is the story of the industrial revolution where mechanization/automation eclipses 'artisan' productivity by thousands of times. It is the story of the computer revolution that emptied white co...

Gas. Gas/Diesel (Internal Combustion Engine Technology (“ICE”) is the only power source that can facilitate rapid self drive adoption. [1a] The early use of self driving technology will be long distance interstate travel. The most ‘valuable’ early use of Self Driving Vehicles (“SDVs”) are in the trucking/goods transportation. A key to successful SDV highway transport is distance. It will be easier and more economical to enlarge gas/diesel gas tanks than to build out charging stations. It will be easier to simply have a truck travel 2,000 to 3,000 miles without fuel issues. Electric isn’t going to do this job. Note, once driver hours are not an issue, trucks could travel at lower speeds and significantly boost fuel economy. [1b] Another early use for SDVs will be taxi/rideshare replacement. As a business the goal will be to have the SDV on the road for as many hours as possible. An ICE SDV fits the bill best for a long duty cycle. Hundreds of miles on a gas fill plus o...

Putting Google aside for a moment, the motivation of every other company is simple.   Survival . It’s a long answer but hang in, there is really a very simple reason why the tech is the same and why they are all working independently on it. Before Google started putting in real money and real talent, fully automated Self Drive Vehicles (“faSDVs”) were something that would exist in the far distant future. A time far past the retirement of any executive in the automotive, taxi or rent a car business. Google understood technology improvement curves and the first mover advantage. Technology improves exponentially, tech costs decline exponentially and the company that makes a particular subset of tech work first becomes number one in the space. After about 5 years of active work, all the non Google watchers realized that faSDVs were going to be real sooner than they thought. Probably 2035 instead of 2080+. So individually and collectively, they made some modest investment...