Self Driving Cars: One Man's Opinion

Ownership of personal vehicles will go down over time but not to zero. Peak availability and other considerations (like long distance travel) will continue the history of direct consumer ownership of a fully automated Self Drive Vehicle (“faSDV”). If the household is ‘traditional’ and suburban, long commutes of the primary breadwinner might still have the family need 2 vehicles. If the commute is short, the faSDV can return ‘home’ and act as the second vehicle. Likely to be very common. And even more likely that 3 and 4 car families will drop to 1 or 2. Ride sharing will help push to the single vehicle model, especially in the denser suburban areas or city environments. And in these areas, maybe to the zero model for less frequent drivers who will find faSDV taxis a lower cost option vs ownership. So the average might approach one vehicle. Fewer 3,4 car families. Many fewer 2 car families. And a lot of urban/suburban singles/families going to zero. If most is 51%, then yes, ...

It’s already legal. Today. Totally. For end consumers, not just testing. In Florida. I’ve written on this issue and the material below is from an earlier answer ( How long will it be before Uber's self driving car fleet doesn't require the presence of a driver who can take over? ). Autonomous | Self-Driving Vehicles Legislation There is NO grey in the enacted Florida legislation. Competition between the states is real. The outcome is certain…in a few years (2019/2020) 80% of the USA will authorize fully autonomous Self Drive Vehicles (“faSDVs”). And the rest shortly thereafter. Ditto for first world nation states. Government always follows. But Governments will get there eventually. Especially when voters want the ‘change’. The faSDV authorization process is well along. And the first state (FL) has fully authorized faSDVs for real people. Since the earlier answer, other states have moved even farther: And more laws on the way: Even the failures com...

Mostly. The advent of fully automated Self Drive Vehicles (“faSDVs”) will turn driving into transportation. How much driving rage does an airline passenger, a train passenger or a taxi passenger have? Riding in a faSDV is little different from riding in a taxi or chauffeured vehicle. Road rage? Not much. The rage or bad mood might be redirected elsewhere but it won’t be road rage. And over enough time, almost all driving will be via faSDV. So road rage will be 99% eliminated. ---------- Originally Posted on Quora.com 2016 12 31:  https://www.quora.com/Will-self-driving-cars-eliminate-road-rage/answer/Bob-Reisner

The website called "The Futurist" had a recent post that discussed major technological changes that will have dramatic societal and economic impact. From  http://www.singularity2050.com/2017/08/atom-award-of-the-month-august-2017.html : "... Hence, the first three factors, and possibly the fourth, combine by 2032 to generate a disruption that will be so comprehensive in the US that the inability of government to change zoning laws and permitting at anything close to the speed of market demand will be greatly exposed..." The first two are Battery Technology & EVs and the second is fully autonomous Self Drive Vehicles ("faSDVs"). The post is worth a read and below are comments I made in response to this article: --------------------------------- I strongly agree with the forecasted strength of the disruptions but I do think there is some additional points that might make for a faster arrival. Batteries The biggest missed point is th...

Why are many companies like Uber, Google and Ford working on self driving cars if the technology behind those cars is going to be similar? Putting Google aside for a moment, the motivation of every other company is simple.  Survival . It’s a long answer but hang in, there is really a very simple reason why the tech is the same and why they are all working independently on it. Before Google started putting in real money and real talent, fully automated Self Drive Vehicles (“faSDVs”) were something that would exist in the far distant future. A time far past the retirement of any executive in the automotive, taxi or rent a car business. Google understood technology improvement curves and the first mover advantage. Technology improves exponentially, tech costs decline exponentially and the company that makes a particular subset of tech work first becomes number one in the space. After about 5 years of active work, all the non Google watchers realized that faSDVs were ...